Hey, look, more about micronational intelligence services!

 Apparently I'm not done speaking about micronational intelligence services - you know, that thing I said you probably didn't need, and then wouldn't shut up about?

Today I want to talk about sources, which are part of "sources and methods". First, I'll throw this out there: while we previously talked about intelligence classification schemes as part of this post, it's important to remember that most information is classified to protect the source, not because of the information itself. For example, if you've got a source inside the naval strategic planning office of your main opponent (let's call them the Hostilians), you don't want to accidentally "burn" that source, so you want to protect everything that comes from them (i.e. "need to know", "eyes only", "NOFORN" - that last one meaning basically "No foreigners"), and filter it carefully before disseminating it. As another example, if your information is coming from SIGINT (see below) because you've cracked the Hostilian codes and you're reading their emails before they do, you certainly don't want them finding out and changing those codes!

Broadly speaking, intelligence sources are described in terms of where they came from, and usually they are abbreviated. For example, OSINT is "open-source intelligence", which means intelligence that is gathered or derived from freely-accessible sources. Despite the free availability, it's frequently a very valuable source of information, with some estimates saying that up to 80% of intelligence being derived from OSINT. For example, if the Hostilian press is suddenly full of editorials slagging on your country, and their leader is at the podium saying what a horrible place your country is and that your government is full of crooks, well, it's pretty obvious that they don't have the best of intentions for you.

HUMINT, or "human intelligence", is derived from human sources - like the aforementioned mole in the Hostilians' naval strategic planning office. This can also be intelligence you gather from prisoners you've taken from the other side, from refugees running from the Hostilian regime, from your border security patrols, from debriefing travelers that have returned from visiting Hostilia, and so on. This is probably the oldest form of intelligence gathering.

GEOINT is "geospatial intelligence" - this can be Google Earth imagery or your own drone reconnaissance footage, for example. Aerial reconnaissance actually predates powered flight, with the use of tethered hot air balloons for spotting troop movement as well as directing artillery fire.

Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) often works closely with cryptanalysis. SIGINT will capture the transmissions, and then the cryptanalysis team will try to break the codes and determine what is actually being said (assuming your enemy isn't just transmitting in the clear!).

Measurement and Signature Intelligence (MASINT), which is distinct from SIGINT, can tell you a lot about what's happening even without being able to understand the enemy's transmissions. For example, if you can triangulate the position of a transmitter, you know where it is (and thus, over time, if it is moving). You may also be able detect what kind of equipment they're using to transmit, and this can yield additional information. Suppose, for example, that the Hostilian Navy has suddenly started using X-band radar. This is useful to know, because X-band radar is shorter range, but higher resolution, and it suffers in poor weather. This, in turn, could help form a battle strategy if it becomes necessary to engage the Hostilian fleet - use the weather to your advantage.

Finally, Technical Intelligence, or TECHINT, is information about the equipment and weapons being used by your opponent. For example, if you've discovered that the Hostilian Navy just bought a bunch of Motorola Talkabout T210 radios for their people, TECHINT will tell you that the maximum range for those radios under optimal conditions is about 32km (20 miles, for the metrically-declined), as well as which frequency ranges that family of radios operates in. The previous insight about X-band radar would also be TECHINT - MASINT identifies the use of the radar, and then TECHINT tells you its limitations, basically.

There's also FININT, or financial intelligence, which looks at financial transactions and the flow of money, but this is generally more useful in law enforcement contexts.

All of the above are ideally combined using something called "all-source intelligence" to create a holistic view of what your opponents are doing/planning.

All-source Intelligence

The point of all-source intelligence is to make sure that you're forming as full a picture of possible, and not disregarding information that might contradict what you think you know. (If you remember, in a previous post I mentioned the possibility that your HUMINT source was saying that the Hostilian (we were still calling it XYZ then) fleet was undergoing retrofit, but your GEOINT was showing that the naval yards were empty.)

By the way, I've been mostly focusing on "state security" intelligence in these blog posts. For a quick view on military intelligence (which overlaps significantly, but not 100%), I can recommend this video by Daniella Mestyanek Young (author of Uncultured, a frankly shocking and disturbing book about growing up in a cult).